The U.S. Subprime Crisis and the subsequent Great Recession have highlighted a renewed interest in the proper design and implementation of Early Warning Systems (E.W.S.), in order to help deter the onset of subsequent extreme financial events, through the implementation of adequate crisis...

In this paper, an issue of major policy significance pertaining to assessing the impact of COVID-19 beyond the short-term on India’s macroeconomy has been addressed by developing two restricted vector autoregression (VAR) models. These models enable an assessment of the detrimental impact of...

Economic policy makers, international organisations and private-sector forecasters commonly use short-term forecasts of real GDP growth based on monthly indicators, such as industrial production, retail sales and confidence surveys. An assessment of the reliability of such tools and of the...

In this study, we construct an index using high-frequency data related to financial markets and intermediation services in Turkey, called the High-Frequency Financial Conditions Index, employing alternative statistical techniques for the period from 2006 to 2020. We also analyze the informative...

Following the winter recession and stagnation in the second quarter of 2023, the economic upswing is proceeding at a sluggish pace, contrary to expectations over the summer. Weak foreign demand and ongoing inflation have proven to be slowing economic growth. For the time being, private...

The unequal distribution of labor income in Germany is a hotly debated topic among policymakers and the general public alike. However, the relevant data for calculating the distribution is usually available with a delay of sometimes over two years. Accordingly, previous studies have only been...