This paper assesses to what extent forecasters make efficient use of competitors' forecasts. Using a panel of forecasters, I find that forecasters underuse information from their competitors in their forecasts for current and next year's annual GDP growth and in ation. The results also show that...

This paper assesses to what extent forecasters make effcient use of competitors' forecasts. Usinga panel of forecasters, I find that forecasters underuse information from their competitors in their forecasts for current and next year's annual GDP growth and inflation. The results also show that...

This paper documents the existence of Political Forecast Cycles. In a theoretical model of political selection, we show that governments release overly optimistic GDP growth forecasts ahead of elections to increase the reelection probability. The bias arises from lack of commitment if voters are...

This paper documents the existence of electoral cycles in GDP growth forecasts released by governments. In a theoretical model of political selection, we show that governments release overly optimistic GDP growth forecasts ahead of elections to increase the reelection probability. The bias...

We evaluate the impacts of adopting algorithmic predictions of future offending (risk assessments) as an aid to judicial discretion in felony sentencing. We find that judges' decisions are influenced by the risk score, leading to longer sentences for defendants with higher scores and shorter...