We propose a methodology for forecasting the systemic impact of financial institutions in interconnected systems. Utilizing a five-year sample including the 2008/9 financial crisis, we demonstrate how the approach can be used for timely systemic risk monitoring of large European banks and...

As central banks have moved towards a forward-looking implementation of monetary policy, the role of forecasts in the policy process has greatly increased. Against this background, this paper looks at the accuracy of forecasts and, more specifically, addresses the question whether forecasts of...