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can be used in risk measurement and forecasting. Value at risk (VaR) is a widely used measure of financial risk, which … assumptions alone in measuring risk. Cushioning against risk has always created a plethora of complexities and challenges; hence …, this paper attempts to analyse statistical properties of various risk measures in a not normal distribution and provide a …
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Using a standard decomposition of forecasts errors into common and idiosyncratic shocks, we show that aggregate forecast uncertainty can be expressed as the disagreement among the forecasters plus the perceived variability of future aggregate shocks. Thus, the reliability of disagreement as a...
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We investigate the accuracy of ex ante assessments of vulnerability to poverty using cross-sectional data and panel data. We use long-term panel data from Germany and apply different regression models, based on household covariates and previous-year equivalence income, to classify a household as...
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