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Daskalova, Vessela; Vriend, Nicolaas J. - 2014

The use of coarse categories is prevalent in various situations and has been linked to biased economic outcomes, ranging from discrimination against minorities to empirical anomalies in financial markets. In this paper we study economic rationales for categorizing coarsely. We think of the way...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010353550

On the measurement of the predictive success of learning theories in repeated games

Mitropoulos, Atanasios - 2001

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014461167

Predictable Effects of Bottom-up Visual Salience in Experimental Decisions and Games

Li, Xiaomin; Camerer, Colin - 2021

“Bottom-up” visual perception is fast, universal, and does not depend on personal goals or experience. Where exactly bottom-up attention is directed in a visual image-- usually based on contrast, color, feature orientation, and centrality-- can be accurately predicted by machine-learned...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013236309

Volatility forecasting for stock market index based on complex network and hybrid deep learning model

Song, Yuping; Lei, Bolin; Tang, Xiaolong; Li, Chen - In: Journal of forecasting 43 (2024) 3, pp. 544-566

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014532346

What point of a distribution summarises point predictions?

Kröger, Sabine; Pierrot, Thibaud - 2019

of an iid random variable. We set up a laboratory experiment where the participants act as forecasters predicting the … their central tendencies. As is standard in survey measures, the subjects in our experiment must report their best guess of … the experiment are based on a percentile while almost 60% are based on a numerical value. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012115998

Comparison of different question formats eliciting point predictions

Kröger, Sabine; Pierrot, Thibaud - 2019

laboratory experiment in which the participants act as forecasters and are asked to predict the next realisation of iid random …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012115999

Predicting and Understanding Initial Play

Fudenberg, Drew - 2019

We use machine learning to uncover regularities in the initial play of matrix games. We first train a prediction algorithm on data from past experiments. Examining the games where our algorithm predicts correctly, but existing economic models don't, leads us to add a parameter to the best...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012900561

Robust Predictions in Games with Incomplete Information

Bergemann, Dirk; Morris, Stephen - 2011

We analyze games of incomplete information and offer equilibrium predictions which are valid for, and in this sense robust to, all possible private information structures that the agents may have. We completely characterize the set of Bayes correlated equilibria in a class of games with...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014175012

Robust Predictions in Games with Incomplete Information

Bergemann, Dirk; Morris, Stephen - 2011

We analyze games of incomplete information and offer equilibrium predictions which are valid for all possible private information structures that the agents may have. Our characterization of these robust predictions relies on an epistemic result which establishes a relationship between the set...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014177259

Statistical Prediction of the Outcome of a Noncooperative Game

Wolpert, David; Bono, James - 2009

Conventionally, game theory predicts that the joint mixed strategy of players in a noncooperative game will satisfy … strategies not satisfying it are assigned probability zero. As an alternative, we recast the prediction problem of game theory as … theory, on specifying a set of "equilibrium" mixed strategies, with a new focus, on specifying a probability density over all …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014216189