Similar Search Results

On the measurement of the predictive success of learning theories in repeated games

Mitropoulos, Atanasios - 2001

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014461167

Volatility forecasting for stock market index based on complex network and hybrid deep learning model

Song, Yuping; Lei, Bolin; Tang, Xiaolong; Li, Chen - In: Journal of forecasting 43 (2024) 3, pp. 544-566

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014532346

What point of a distribution summarises point predictions?

Kröger, Sabine; Pierrot, Thibaud - 2019

of an iid random variable. We set up a laboratory experiment where the participants act as forecasters predicting the … their central tendencies. As is standard in survey measures, the subjects in our experiment must report their best guess of … the experiment are based on a percentile while almost 60% are based on a numerical value. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012115998

Comparison of different question formats eliciting point predictions

Kröger, Sabine; Pierrot, Thibaud - 2019

laboratory experiment in which the participants act as forecasters and are asked to predict the next realisation of iid random …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012115999

Predicting and Understanding Initial Play

Fudenberg, Drew - 2019

We use machine learning to uncover regularities in the initial play of matrix games. We first train a prediction algorithm on data from past experiments. Examining the games where our algorithm predicts correctly, but existing economic models don't, leads us to add a parameter to the best...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012900561

Stabilizing Unstable Outcomes in Prediction Games

Brams, Steven J. - 2017

Assume in a 2-person game that one player, Predictor (P), does not have a dominant strategy but can predict with probability p 1/2 the strategy choice of an opponent, Predictee (Q). Q chooses a strategy that maximizes her expected payoff, given that she knows p—but not P's prediction—and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012960726

Cason, Timothy N. - 2019

Studies of strategic sophistication in experimental normal form games commonly assume that subjects' beliefs are consistent with independent choice. This paper examines whether beliefs are consistent with correlated choice. Players play a sequence of simple 2×2 normal form games with distinct...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012890126

Forecast Dispersion in Finite-Player Forecasting Games

Kim, Jin Yeub - 2017

We study forecast dispersion in a finite-player forecasting game modeled as an aggregate game with payoff externalities and dispersed information. In the game, each agent cares about being accurate as well as about the distance of his forecast from the average forecast; and with a finite number...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012972639

Statistical Prediction of the Outcome of a Noncooperative Game

Wolpert, David; Bono, James - 2009

Conventionally, game theory predicts that the joint mixed strategy of players in a noncooperative game will satisfy … strategies not satisfying it are assigned probability zero. As an alternative, we recast the prediction problem of game theory as … theory, on specifying a set of "equilibrium" mixed strategies, with a new focus, on specifying a probability density over all …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014216189

Cason, Timothy N.; Sharma, Tridib; Vadovic, Radovan - 2022

In most games, for equilibrium to result, players need to forecast the equilibrium strategies of others. We elicit forecasts of outcomes in a series of hawk-dove (aka chicken) games played by other players. We ask whether these forecasts are consistent with any correlated equilibrium of a class...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014079715

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Next
Last