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-linear models for stock and bond returns in the G7 countries. Besides Markov switching, threshold autoregressive (TAR), and smooth …-linear dynamics, especially of the Markov switching type. Although occasionally also stock and bond return forecasts for other G7 …
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The standard predictive regression assumes expected returns to be perfectly correlated with predictors. In the recently-introduced predictive system, imperfect predictors account only for a partial variance in expected returns. However, the out-of-sample benefits of relaxing the assumption of...
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