The term globalisation has gained widespread popularity; yet most treatments are either descriptive and/or focused on changes in economic interconnectivity. This book brings together leading international experts from a range of disciplines to develop a long-term analysis to address the problems...

This paper uses several macroeconomic and financial indicators within a Markov Switching (MS) framework to predict the turning points of the business cycle. The presented model is applied to monthly German real-time data covering the recession and the recovery after the financial crisis. We show...