We study how individual unemployment expectations are shaped and updated using a unique longitudinal survey data set … with subjective unemployment expectations. The survey data is linked with third-party reported administrative data on … unemployment realizations, such that we are able to examine how prediction errors lead individuals to update their unemployment …

unemployment risk, and increased uncertainty around the inflation forecast. Growth vulnerability arises as the conditional mean and …We construct risks around consensus forecasts of real GDP growth, unemployment, and inflation. We find that risks are … time-varying, asymmetric, and partly predictable. Tight financial conditions forecast downside growth risk, upside …