state-level initial unemployment insurance claims, changes in the unemployment rate, and changes in private employment. The …

In this paper we evaluate whether the accuracy of Finnish unemployment rate forecasts can be improved by utilising the … information in the flows into and out of unemployment. We compare and contrast different methodologies for constructing the flows …

Unemployment is notoriously difficult to predict. In previous studies, once country and year fixed effects are added to … panel estimates, few variables predict changes in unemployment rates. Using panel data for 29 European countries collected … just over 10000 observations, we predict changes in the unemployment rate 12 months ahead. We do so using individuals …

to forecast the unemployment rate, labor force participation rate and employment-to-population ratio. The forecast …