Using a controlled laboratory experiment, we test the effect of individual versus group when making judgmental forecasting adjustments. When individuals make decisions, especially that are exacting task like forecasting, they often feel anxious. Yet, when groups make decisions, they feel less...

In this paper, we are trying first to exhibit why – paradoxically – the local economic performance is not able to explain the regional vote in France. In a second time, we build a Political Economy model (pooled time series), testing voting for regional incumbents and Front National as well....

This study provides evidence that state budget officials give biased forecasts. Specifically, in gubernatorial election years, state budget officers overestimate the growth in state personal income, U.S. personal income, and state revenues by 1.3%, 1%, and 2%, respectively. These biases are even...