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Wirtschaftsprognosen sollen die Unsicherheit bezüglich der zukünftigen wirtschaftlichen Entwicklung mindern und Planungsprozesse von Regierungen und Unternehmen unterstützen. Empirische Studien bescheinigen ihnen jedoch in aller Regel ein unbefriedigendes Qualitätsniveau. Auf der Suche nach...
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Can luck predict risk-taking behavior in games of chance? Economists have not widely studied this issue although … good and bad luck outcomes in a simple repeated risky investment game affect risk-taking behavior in the following rounds … demonstrate a strong impact of luck on risk-taking behavior that lasts not only to the next round but also into another two follow …
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assumptions alone in measuring risk. Cushioning against risk has always created a plethora of complexities and challenges; hence …, this paper attempts to analyse statistical properties of various risk measures in a not normal distribution and provide a … financial blueprint on how to manage risk. It is assumed that using old assumptions of normality alone in a distribution is not …
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A hypothesis of uncertain future was created and first applied in the field of utility and prospect theories. An extension of application of the hypothesis to the field of forecasting is considered in the article. The concept of inevitability of unforeseen events is a part of the hypothesis of...
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One of the key components of financial risk management is risk measurement. This typically requires modeling … financial econometrics literature have developed several models based on Extreme Value Theory (EVT) to carry out these tasks …
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