Prospect Theory (CPT), Expected Utility Theory (EUT), Rank Dependent expected Utility (RDU) and mean-variance have poor out …-of-sample predictability. To accurately predict risk, we develop Geometric Dispersion Theory (GDT), which is based on two asymmetric simple …

characteristics, past gambling behavior, eye-movements, and various psychophysiological measures that are recorded during the first … three seconds of lottery-information processing. The results of our forecasting experiment show that choice-process data can … effectively be used to forecast risky gambling decisions; however, we find large differences among models’ forecasting …