Temporal climate risk weighs heavily on many of the world's poor. Model-based climate forecasts could benefit such populations, provided recipients use forecast information to update climate expectations. We test whether pastoralists in southern Ethiopia and northern Kenya update their...

This note shows that combining external forecasts such as the Survey of Professional Fore casters can significantly increase DSGE forecast accuracy while preserving the interpretability in terms of structural shocks. Applied to pseudo real-time from 1997q2 onward, the canonical Smets and Wouters...

Exploiting the near-experimental conditions provided by the British Pound market in US Dollars during the Brexit vote of June 23rd, 2016, we unearth a major challenge to the Efficient Market Hypothesis. With a single factor of prior polling information, we show that the Brexit result could have...