Option pricing and allocation tools in portfolio construction should be prospective - based on assumptions about how prices will change in the future. Most capital market assumptions used in portfolio construction are based on retrospective analysis, boiling down to simple calculations of...

This paper defines a Beaufort Predictability Index, analogous to the Beaufort Wind Force Scale, to assist analysts in sizing up statistical prediction problems; for background we outline the career of Francis Beaufort and the genesis of his Wind Force Scale. We then describe the various versions...

I introduce a reduced form two-sided market model to study prediction and identification in two-sided markets. The model generates the hallmark features of two-sided markets: potentially below cost or even negative prices to one side of the market, and the “see-saw” or “waterbed” effect...

I introduce a reduced form two-sided market model to study prediction and identification in two-sided markets. The model generates the hallmark features of two-sided markets: potentially below cost or even negative prices to one side of the market, and the “see-saw” or “waterbed” effect...

I introduce a reduced form two-sided market model to study prediction and identification in two-sided markets. The model generates the hallmark features of two-sided markets: potentially below cost or even negative prices to one side of the market, and the "see-saw" or "waterbed" effect of a...