We estimate a Bayesian learning model with heterogeneity aimed at explaining expert forecast disagreement and its evolution over horizons. Disagreement is postulated to have three components due to differences in: i) the initial prior beliefs, ii) the weights attached on priors, and iii)...

In a system where expectations and realisations of a price feed back to each other, it has been found that the sign and strength of this feedback is an important predictor of the market stability. In this paper we contribute to the generalisation of this result to a two dimensional system, where...

Large-scale disasters regularly affect societies over the globe, causing large destruction and damage. After each of these events, media, insurance companies, and international institutions publish numerous assessments of the “cost of the disaster.” However these assessments are based on...

Large-scale disasters regularly affect societies over the globe, causing large destruction and damage. After each of these events, media, insurance companies, and international institu-tions publish numerous assessments of the "cost of the disaster." However these assessments are based on...

Large-scale disasters regularly affect societies over the globe, causing large destruction and damage. After each of these events, media, insurance companies, and international institu-tions publish numerous assessments of the "cost of the disaster." However these assessments are based on...