results of such tests. In some cases, with appropriate knowledge of the corruption mechanism, the true values of the …

The ability to predict corruption is crucial to policy. Using rich micro-data from Brazil, we show that multiple … machine learning models display high levels of performance in predicting municipality-level corruption in public spending. We … predictors of corruption, while public sector and political features play a secondary role. Our findings have implications for …

Intro -- Contents -- Preface -- 1. The Dilemma of Getting to War -- 2. Predicting War in Theory -- 3. Testing the … Theory -- 4. Predicting War in Practice: Crisis and War -- 5. Getting to War in U.S. Diplomatic History -- 6. Conclusion and … Implications for Theory -- Appendixes -- Appendix 1: Data Sets -- Appendix 2: Coding Instructions, Nations and Newspapers …