Option pricing and allocation tools in portfolio construction should be prospective - based on assumptions about how prices will change in the future. Most capital market assumptions used in portfolio construction are based on retrospective analysis, boiling down to simple calculations of...

This paper defines a Beaufort Predictability Index, analogous to the Beaufort Wind Force Scale, to assist analysts in sizing up statistical prediction problems; for background we outline the career of Francis Beaufort and the genesis of his Wind Force Scale. We then describe the various versions...

Assessing the migration potential and predicting future migration streams are among the most relevant, yet least well understood topics of migration research. The usual approach taken to address aggregate-level prediction problems is to fit ad hoc specifications to historical data, and to...

Assessing the migration potential and predicting future migration streams are among the most relevant, yet least well understood topics of migration research. The usual approach taken to address aggregate-level prediction problems is to fit ad hoc specifications to historical data, and to...