Value-at-risk (VaR) is a useful risk measure broadly used by financial institutions all over the world. VaR has been extensively used to measure systematic risk exposure in developed markets like of the US, Europe and Asia. This paper analyzes the accuracy of VaR measure for Pakistan's emerging...

Literature Review -- Return Predictability and the Real Economy -- Study Design and Data -- Empirical Part I - Testing for Predictability -- Forecasting Models -- Empirical Part II - Investment Strategies -- Conclusion