Narrow search
Showing 1 - 10 of 15,088
Cover Image
Why Does the Yield Curve Predict GDP Growth? The Role of Banks
Minoiu, Camelia; Schneider, Andres; Wei, Min - 2023
We provide evidence on the effect of the slope of the yield curve on economic activity through bank lending. Using … rates) boosts bank profits and the supply of bank loans. Intuitively, a higher term premium represents greater expected … profits on maturity transformation, which is at the core of banks’ business model, and therefore incentivizes bank lending …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014353432
Cover Image
Medium-term forecasts of potential GDP and inflation using age structure information
Lindh, Thomas - 1999
Economic behavior as well as economic resources of individuals vary with age. Swedish time series show that the age structure of the population contains information correlated to medium-term trends in growth, inflation and other macroeconomic data. GDP gaps estimated by age structure regressions...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011583438
Cover Image
Predicting GDP Growth with Stock and Bond Markets : Do They Contain Different Information?
McMillan, David G. - 2019
This paper examines the ability of bond and stock markets to predict subsequent GDP growth over a range of horizons for twelve international countries. The results, using linear, probit, time- and regime-varying in-sample regressions and out-of-sample forecasting, confirm the view that both...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012891593
Cover Image
Predictive Density Aggregation : A Model for Global GDP Growth
Caselli, Francesca - 2020
In this paper we propose a novel approach to obtain the predictive density of global GDP growth. It hinges upon a bottom-up probabilistic model that estimates and combines single countries' predictive GDP growth densities, taking into account cross-country interdependencies. Specifically,we...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012829696
Cover Image
Do real-time Okun's law errors predict GDP data revisions?
Barnes, Michelle L.; Gumbau-Brisa, Fabià; Olivei, … - 2012 - This version: December 2012
Using U.S. real-time data, we show that changes in the unemployment rate unexplained by Okun's Law have significant predictive power for GDP data revisions. A positive (negative) error in Okun's Law in real time implies that GDP will be later revised to show less (more) growth than initially...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009723755
Cover Image
News-Based Sentiment Indicators
Huang, Chengyu - 2020
We construct sentiment indices for 20 countries from 1980 to 2019. Relying on computational text analysis, we capture specific language like 'fear', 'risk', 'hedging', 'opinion', and, 'crisis', as well as 'positive' and 'negative' sentiments, in news articles from the Financial Times. We assess...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012843513
Cover Image
Nowcasting finnish GDP growth using financial variables : a MIDAS approach
Laine, Olli-Matti; Lindblad, Annika - In: Journal of the Finnish Economic Association : JFEA 2 (2021) 1, pp. 74-108
We analyse the performance of financial market variables in nowcasting Finnish quarterly GDP growth. In particular, we assess if prediction accuracy is affected by the sampling frequency of the financial variables. Therefore, we apply MIDAS models that allow us to nowcast quarterly GDP growth...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013286502
Cover Image
Nowcasting Finnish GDP growth using financial variables : a MIDAS approach
Laine, Olli-Matti; Lindblad, Annika - 2020
We analyse the performance of financial market variables in nowcasting Finnish quarterly GDP growth. Especially, we assess if prediction accuracy is affected by the sampling frequency of the financial variables. Therefore, we apply MIDAS models that allow us to forecast quarterly GDP growth...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012214415
Cover Image
Quantifying macroeconomic uncertainty in Norway
Bowe, Frida; Kirkeby, Sara Jahr; Lindalen, Ingvild Hagen; … - 2023
This paper presents a framework for quantifying uncertainty around point forecasts for GDP, inflation and house prices in Norway. The framework combines quantile regressions using a broad set of uncertainty indicators with a skewed t-distribution, allowing for time-variation and asymmetry in the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014313751
Cover Image
Forecasting GDP growth from the outer space
Galimberti, Jaqueson K. - 2017
We evaluate the usefulness of satellite-based data on nighttime lights for the prediction of annual GDP growth across a global sample of countries. Going beyond traditional measures of luminosity, such as the sum of lights within a country's borders, we propose several innovative distribution-...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011619456