Under what conditions do democratic regimes arise, and what forces shape whether those regimes survive or fail? This report describes the methods and results of a statistical analysis undertaken by Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC) for the Political Instability Task Force...

This paper analyzes the accuracy of GDP growth forecasts prepared by the EBRD for 25 transition countries between 1994 and 2004. It finds that EBRD forecasts are mostly unbiased and efficient, and that forecast accuracy has improved as transition has progressed and as the range of data sources...