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Multi-step-ahead forecasts of forecast uncertainty in practice are often based on the horizon-specific sample means of … recent squared forecast errors, where the number of available past forecast errors decreases one-to-one with the forecast … horizon. In this paper, the efficiency gains from the joint estimation of forecast uncertainty for all horizons in such …
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In this paper, I use the materials of the debate on the reliability and the utility of "business barometers" of the Twenties in order to show that the theoretical reflexions of the time could be used by economic historians as a working hypothesis to analyze the influence exerted by circulating...
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