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Statistical Prediction of the Outcome of a Noncooperative Game
Wolpert, David; Bono, James - 2009
Conventionally, game theory predicts that the joint mixed strategy of players in a noncooperative game will satisfy … strategies not satisfying it are assigned probability zero. As an alternative, we recast the prediction problem of game theory as … theory, on specifying a set of "equilibrium" mixed strategies, with a new focus, on specifying a probability density over all …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014216189
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Rationalität und Qualität von Wirtschaftsprognosen
Scheier, Johannes - 2014
Wirtschaftsprognosen sollen die Unsicherheit bezüglich der zukünftigen wirtschaftlichen Entwicklung mindern und Planungsprozesse von Regierungen und Unternehmen unterstützen. Empirische Studien bescheinigen ihnen jedoch in aller Regel ein unbefriedigendes Qualitätsniveau. Auf der Suche nach...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011305813
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Affecting Policy by Manipulating Prediction Markets : Experimental Evidence
Lin, Shengle - 2013
Documented results indicate prediction markets effectively aggregate information and form accurate predictions. This has led to a proliferation of markets predicting everything from the results of elections to a company's sales to movie box office receipts. Recent research suggests prediction...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013087080
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Risk aversion in prediction markets : a framed-field experiment
Boulu-Reshef, Béatrice; Comeig, Irene; Donze, Robert; … - In: Journal of business research : JBR 69 (2016) 11, pp. 5071-5075
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011589141
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Bubbles, crashes and information contagion in large-group asset market experiments
Hommes, Cars H.; Kopányi-Peuker, Anita; Sonnemans, Joep - In: Experimental economics : a journal of the Economic … 24 (2021) 2, pp. 414-433
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012544355
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Evolutionary selection of forecasting and quantity decision rules in experimental asset markets
Zhu, Jiahua; Te, Bao; Chia, Wai-mun - In: Journal of economic behavior & organization : JEBO 182 (2021), pp. 363-404
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012598362
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Bubbles, crashes and information contagion in large-group asset market experiments
Hommes, Cars H.; Kopányi-Peuker, Anita; Sonnemans, Joep - 2019
We experimentally investigate how price expectations are formed in a large asset market where subjects' only task is to forecast the future price of a risky asset. The realized prices depend on these expectations. We observe small (6 participants) and large markets (about 100 participants). In...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011979625
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Prediction Tools : Financial Market Regulation, Politics & Psychology
Mousavi, Shabnam - 2010
. Our framework combines elements from game theory, political science, the economics of regulation, and behavioral finance …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013139682
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Making Predictions : The Group Decision Forecasting (GDF) Problem
Kimbrough, Steven O. - 2014
This paper describes the group decision forecasting (or prediction) problem and explores a particular case of it. The case is that of what policy the Iranian government would implement for pursuing the war with Iran during the mid-1980s. This case is described in a well-known, if controversial...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013046014
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Low Cognitive Reflection Predicts Honesty for Men But Not for Women
Capraro, Valerio - 2018
Previous experiments have explored the effects of gender and cognitive reflection on dishonesty separately. To the best of our knowledge, no studies have investigated potential interactions between these two factors. Exploring this interaction is important because previous work found that males...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012918518