Can we predict when and where violence will break out within cases of genocide? Given often weak political will to … contemplating intervention. I develop a theoretical model to help identify areas vulnerable to violence during genocide. I argue … strength of society's cohesion below. Violence will be delayed in areas where political and military resistance to the center …

Policymakers can take actions to prevent local conflict before it begins, if such violence can be accurately predicted … decades of fine-grained violence data by type, alongside hundreds of annual risk factors. We predict violence one year ahead … with a range of machine learning techniques. Models reliably identify persistent, high-violence hot spots. Violence is not …

Policymakers can take actions to prevent local conflict before it begins, if such violence can be accurately predicted … decades of fine-grained violence data by type, alongside hundreds of annual risk factors. We predict violence one year ahead … with a range of machine learning techniques. Models reliably identify persistent, high-violence hot spots. Violence is not …