We compare the predictive performance in forecasting the onset of large scale political violence worldwide of five statistical models and three commonly used fragility/instability indices using PITF and UCDP data for the period 2000-2015. We find that the models typically outperform the rankings...

Information aggregation mechanisms are designed explicitly for collecting and aggregating dispersed information. An excellent example of the use of this “wisdom of crowds” is a prediction market. The purpose of our social network-embedded prediction market is to suggest that carefully...