We study how individual unemployment expectations are shaped and updated using a unique longitudinal survey data set … with subjective unemployment expectations. The survey data is linked with third-party reported administrative data on … unemployment realizations, such that we are able to examine how prediction errors lead individuals to update their unemployment …

policy mix of unemployment insurance agencies. We analyze unique data on three sources of information on the probability of … re-employment within 6 months (RE6), for the same individuals sampled from the inflow into unemployment. First, they were …

the same individuals sampled from the inflow into unemployment. First, they were asked for their perceived probability of … nach Eintritt in die Arbeitslosigkeit. Erstens wurden Arbeitslose kurz nach Beginn der Arbeitslosigkeit nach ihrer …

the same individuals sampled from the inflow into unemployment. First, they were asked for their perceived probability of …

the program. The literature uses linear probability models and (Cox) proportional hazard models to predict duration … outcomes. These either focus on one threshold duration or impose proportionality. In this paper we propose a nonparametric … work from unemployment insu rance, we do not find that the weighting method outperforms Cox survivor function predictions. …