find a higher average forecast accuracy of models that incorporate information on inflation expectations from the ECB's SPF … inflation expectations are typically not large but significant in some periods. Both short- and long-term expectations provide … (not always for the countries). The analysis is undertaken for headline inflation and inflation excluding energy and food …

year ahead inflation. In addition, it turns out that the performance of MDS model forecasting is competitive in comparison … with other models found to be useful in the inflation forecasting literature. …

monetary policy. The focus is on inflation dynamics and all three studies involve some approach of forecasting. The first … chapter deals with estimation problems of a monetary policy rule and inflation dynamics. In light of potential weak instrument …. These factors are used to instrument the public's unobserved inflation expectations prevalent at each point in time. The …