This paper presents a parsimonious model for forecasting and analysing euro area house prices and their interrelations with the macroeconomy. A quarterly vector error correction model is estimated over 1970-2009 using supply and demand forces central to the determination of euro area house...

We augment linear pricing models for the housing market commonly used in the literature with google trends data in order to assess whether or not crowd-sourced search query data can improve the forecasting ability of the models. We compare various performance measures of the augmented linear...

Two new predictive screening tools that are based on analyzing records of over one-million people who experienced homelessness have been placed in the public domain by the Economic Roundtable. The two groups targeted by these tools are low-wage workers who have just lost their jobs and youth...

I find that high home-buying costs for a typical household, relative to a cumulative city-level average, help to predict downward pressure on future real house price growth at a 1-year horizon for Canadian cities over the 1980q1 to 2016q2 sample period. This insight is relevant for broader...

This paper presents a parsimonious model for forecasting and analysing euro area house prices and their interrelations with the macroeconomy. A quarterly vector error correction model is estimated over 1970-2009 using supply and demand forces central to the determination of euro area house...

This paper defines a measure of net housing demand or supply which allows the calculation of a long, high frequency time series, whose principal use is intended to be in a multivariate residential property price forecasting model. The series is easily and inexpensively replicable. We formulate...

For several decades, theorists and researchers have emphasized investigating and analyzing the likelihood of contagion of turbulence among markets. The behavior of the housing market is also essential because of the impact of housing prices on the loan portfolios of banks and other financial...

This paper presents a parsimonious model for forecasting and analysing euro area house prices and their interrelations with the macroeconomy. A quarterly vector error correction model is estimated over 1970-2009 using supply and demand forces central to the determination of euro area house...

This paper investigates the importance of including data on new housing supply in Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models in forecasting the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), focusing on the U.S. While existing models have added a financial sector and real estate sector, they have...

This article provides the in-sample estimation and evaluates the out-of-sample conditional mean and volatility forecast performance of the conventional Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH), Asymmetric Power Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (APARCH) and...