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Quantifying qualitative survey data : new insights on the (ir)rationality of firms' forecasts

Botsis, Alexandros; Görtz, Christoph; Sakellarēs, … - 2020

particular violation of the Full Information Rational Expectations hypothesis that requires explanation. In contrast, minor …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012174792

Generalized stochastic gradient learning

Evans, George W.; Honkapohja, Seppo; Williams, Noah - 2005

We study the properties of generalized stochastic gradient (GSG) learning in forward-looking models. We examine how the conditions for stability of standard stochastic gradient (SG) learning both differ from and are related to E-stability, which governs stability under least squares learning. SG...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010261355

Generalized Stochastic Gradient Learning

Evans, George W.; Honkapohja, Seppo; Williams, Noah - 2021

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013318147

Heterogeneous expectations among professional forecasters

Conrad, Christian; Lahiri, Kajal - 2023

Macroeconomic expectations of various economic agents are characterized by substantial cross-sectional heterogeneity …. In this paper, we focus on expectations heterogeneity among professional forecasters. We first present stylized facts and … discuss theoretical explanations for heterogeneous expectations. We then provide an overview of the empirical evidence …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014472058

Heterogeneous expectations among professional forecasters

Conrad, Christian; Lahiri, Kajal - 2024

Macroeconomic expectations of various economic agents are characterized by substantial crosssectional heterogeneity …. This chapter focuses on heterogeneity in the expectations among professional forecasters, first presenting stylized facts … and discussing theoretical explanations for heterogeneous expectations, before providing an overview of the empirical …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015084332

Unusual shocks in our usual models

Ferroni, Filippo; Fisher, Jonas D. M.; Melosi, Leonardo - 2022

We propose an event-study research design to identify the nature and propagation of large unusual shocks in DSGE models and apply it to study the macroeconomic effects of the Covid shock. The initial outbreak is represented as the onset of a new shock process where the shock loads on wedges...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013375147

Bias, rationality and asymmetric loss functions

Bürgi, Constantin - In: Economics letters 154 (2017), pp. 113-116

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011815207

Forecasting and policy making

Wieland, Volker; Wolters, Maik H. - 2012

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010394237

Are Euro-Area expectations about recession phases effective to anticipate consequences of economic crises?

Rubilar-González, Marco; Pino, Gabriel - In: SERIEs : Journal of the Spanish Economic Association 9 (2018) 2, pp. 141-161

tool to identify and characterize expectations of business cycle phases for Germany, Spain, the Euro Area, and the European … more sensitive to international disturbances. Our results also reveal a lack of synchronization of the expectations across …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011865218

Consumer confidence indicators and economic fluctuations in Nigeria

Ibrahim, Adamu; Bawa, Sani; Abdullahi, Ismaila S.; … - In: CBN journal of applied statistics 6 (2015) 1, pp. 285-300

of consumers in their expectations about the general state of the economy, even if their pessimism were not based on …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011473528