Narrow search
Showing 1 - 10 of 1,104
Cover Image
Quantifying qualitative survey data : new insights on the (ir)rationality of firms' forecasts
Botsis, Alexandros; Görtz, Christoph; Sakellarēs, … - 2020
particular violation of the Full Information Rational Expectations hypothesis that requires explanation. In contrast, minor …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012174792
Cover Image
Generalized stochastic gradient learning
Evans, George W.; Honkapohja, Seppo; Williams, Noah - 2005
We study the properties of generalized stochastic gradient (GSG) learning in forward-looking models. We examine how the conditions for stability of standard stochastic gradient (SG) learning both differ from and are related to E-stability, which governs stability under least squares learning. SG...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010261355
Cover Image
Generalized Stochastic Gradient Learning
Evans, George W.; Honkapohja, Seppo; Williams, Noah - 2021
We study the properties of generalized stochastic gradient (GSG) learning in forward-looking models. We examine how the conditions for stability of standard stochastic gradient (SG) learning both differ from and are related to E-stability, which governs stability under least squares learning. SG...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013318147
Cover Image
The Predictability of Future Aggregate Earnings Growth and the Relation between Aggregate Analyst Recommendation Changes and Future Returns
Billings, Bruce K. - 2020
We extend prior research examining the relation between aggregate recommendation changes and future returns by documenting that this relation varies over time as a function of the predictability of future earnings growth. When industry-level earnings growth is more predictable, we find that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012840191
Cover Image
Unusual shocks in our usual models
Ferroni, Filippo; Fisher, Jonas D. M.; Melosi, Leonardo - 2022
We propose an event-study research design to identify the nature and propagation of large unusual shocks in DSGE models and apply it to study the macroeconomic effects of the Covid shock. The initial outbreak is represented as the onset of a new shock process where the shock loads on wedges...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013375147
Cover Image
Heterogeneous expectations among professional forecasters
Conrad, Christian; Lahiri, Kajal - 2023
Macroeconomic expectations of various economic agents are characterized by substantial cross-sectional heterogeneity …. In this paper, we focus on expectations heterogeneity among professional forecasters. We first present stylized facts and … discuss theoretical explanations for heterogeneous expectations. We then provide an overview of the empirical evidence …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014472058
Cover Image
Consumer confidence indicators and economic fluctuations in Nigeria
Ibrahim, Adamu; Bawa, Sani; Abdullahi, Ismaila S.; … - In: CBN journal of applied statistics 6 (2015) 1, pp. 285-300
of consumers in their expectations about the general state of the economy, even if their pessimism were not based on …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011473528
Cover Image
Forecasting and policy making
Wieland, Volker; Wolters, Maik H. - 2012
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010394237
Cover Image
Are Euro-Area expectations about recession phases effective to anticipate consequences of economic crises?
Rubilar-González, Marco; Pino, Gabriel - In: SERIEs : Journal of the Spanish Economic Association 9 (2018) 2, pp. 141-161
tool to identify and characterize expectations of business cycle phases for Germany, Spain, the Euro Area, and the European … more sensitive to international disturbances. Our results also reveal a lack of synchronization of the expectations across …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011865218
Cover Image
Quantifying qualitative survey data with panel data structure
Botsis, Alexandros; Görtz, Christoph; Sakellarēs, … - 2024
-level forecasts or household expectations. As an application, we employ a panel of Greek manufacturing firms and quantify firms …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014502459