This paper estimates wage equations for New Zealand based on pooled data from the Household Economic Survey (HES) from 2006/07 to 2010/11. Equations are estimated separately for couple men and women, single men and women and sole parents. The results are compared to previous New Zealand...

The paper derives analytical transitions probabilities following an exogenous shock to the deterministic component in the conditional logit model. The solution draws on the postestimation distribution of the models stochastic component, identified on the basis of a direct utility maximization...

Due to the recent financial crisis, the interest in econometric models that allow to incorporate binary variables (such as the occurrence of a crisis) experienced a huge surge. This paper evaluates the performance of the Qual VAR, i.e. a VAR model including a latent variable that governs the...

Attack and defense strengths of football teams vary over time due to changes in the teams of players or their managers. We develop a statistical model for the analysis and forecasting of football match results which are assumed to come from a bivariate Poisson distribution with intensity...

Forecasting real economic activity poses a considerable challenge not only due to hard-to-predict events like the current financial crisis but also due to the fact that targeted variables often undergo significant revisions after their first publication. In this paper we report the results of a...

We study the forecasting of the yearly outcome of the Boat Race between Cambridge and Oxford. We compare the relative performance of different dynamic models for forty years of forecasting. Each model is defined by a binary density conditional on a latent signal that is specified as a dynamic...

Do financial market analysts use structural economic models when forecasting exchange rates? This is the leading question analysed in this apper. In contrast to other studies we use expectations instead of realised data. Therefore we analyse the implicit structural models forecasters have in...

Early-warning models most commonly optimize signaling thresholds on crisis probabilities. The expost threshold optimization is based upon a loss function accounting for preferences between forecast errors, but comes with two crucial drawbacks: unstable thresholds in recursive estimations and an...

The analysis of the financial cycle and its interaction with the macroeconomy has become a central issue for the design of macroprudential policy since the 2007-08 financial crisis. This paper proposes the construction of financial cycle measures for the US based on a large data set of...