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We follow the behavioral equilibrium exchange rate approach by Clark and MacDonald (1998) to derive equilibrium real effective exchange rates and currency misalignments for the US and its 16 major trading partners. We apply cointegration and panel cointegration techniques to derive fully...
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Simulated test marketing (STM) is a quantitative technique used to forecast new product sales, one of the most validated tools in all marketing research. Forecasting awareness is an important stage in that process, one critical to STM performance. Awareness models incorporated into popular STMs...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014176688
In almost all stages of forecasting volatility, certain subjective decisions need to be made. Despite of an enormous …. In order to find out outperforming model in general not just in the contexts of studies, volatility models should be …, EWMA), GARCH family models (GARCH, GRJ-GARCH, GARCH, APARCH, NAGARCH, FIGARCH) and Stochastic Volatility model. The …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009743532
This paper constructs individual-specific density forecasts for a panel of firms or households using a dynamic linear model with common and heterogeneous coefficients and cross-sectional heteroskedasticity. The panel considered in this paper features a large cross-sectional dimension N but short...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011932215
We use a dynamic panel Tobit model with heteroskedasticity to generate forecasts for a large cross‐section of short time series of censored observations. Our fully Bayesian approach allows us to flexibly estimate the cross‐sectional distribution of heterogeneous coefficients and then...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014306360
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This chapter surveys recent econometric methodologies for inference in large dimensional conditional factor models in finance. Changes in the business cycle and asset characteristics induce time variation in factor loadings and risk premia to be accounted for. The growing trend in the use of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012101166
For forecasting volatility of futures returns, the paper proposes an indirect method based on the relationship between … futures and the underlying asset for the returns and time-varying volatility. For volatility forecasting, the paper considers … the stochastic volatility model with asymmetry and long memory, using high frequency data for the underlying asset …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011590424