Economists often use event study methodology to evaluate the impact of new regulations on firms before there is enough data to empirically estimate the effects. This research investigates the degree to which event study methodology can provide useful information in this regard by studying how...

This paper argues that forecast estimators should minimise the loss function in a statistical, rather than deterministic, way. We introduce two new elements into the classical econometric analysis: a subjective guess on the variable to be forecasted and a probability reflecting the confidence...

Assessing the migration potential and predicting future migration streams are among the most relevant, yet least well understood topics of migration research. The usual approach taken to address aggregate-level prediction problems is to fit ad hoc specifications to historical data, and to...