The coronavirus pandemic caused a global market crash in the first half of 2020. Following a massive slump of around four percent in the first quarter, global GDP decreased in the second by five percent. Lower rates of new infections, together with far-reaching monetary and fiscal policy...

The coronavirus recession has left deep marks on the German economy and despite economic policy action, it is likely to heal only slowly. The partial easing of the lockdown and a gradual revival of global value chains are generating positive stimuli, but massive income losses will curb demand...

The German economy continues to perform well although the boom has ended. However, at 1.5 percent, German GDP will increase this year at a lower rate than expected at the beginning of the year. Nevertheless, concerns about an imminent recession should give way to the assessment that the pace of...

After a turbulent summer, marked by a weak second and a likely stronger third quarter, the German economy should return to an average pace of growth and end up with a growth rate of 0.9 percent in 2019. Despite the more subdued pace, capacity utilization remains high; employment growth is...

The German economy remains weak as of the fourth quarter of 2019. However, although industrial production is continuing its downward trend, there are signs of a slow recovery. The manufacturing sector is likely to expand production gradually beginning in 2020; therefore, it is less likely the...

The current global economic environment remains harsh. Global growth rates stagnated in the fourth quarter of 2018, particularly affected by foreign trade. DIW Berlin’s forecast indicates global economic growth of 3.7 percent for 2019 and 3.6 percent for 2020. Positive stimuli are expected...

The coronavirus pandemic is once again slowing down the German economy: Following a strong and unexpected economic recovery over summer 2020, which compensated for large parts of the losses from the spring, the second wave has resulted in renewed restrictions affecting both social and economic...

Global warming, sea level rise, and extreme weather events have made climate change a top priority for policymakers across the globe. But which policies are best suited to tackle the enormous challenges presented by our changing climate? This Article proposes that policymakers turn to prediction...

In this study, we systematically evaluate the potential of a bunch of survey-based indicators from different economic branches to forecasting export growth across a multitude of European countries. Our pseudo out-of-sample analyses reveal that the best-performing indicators beat a well-specified...

Globalization has led to huge increases in import volumes, but the literature on import forecasting is still in its infancy. We introduce the first leading indicator especially constructed for total import growth, the so-called Import Climate. It builds on the idea that the import demand of the...