We present a new Monte-Carlo methodology to forecast the crude oil production of Norway and the U.K. based on a two-step process, (i) the nonlinear extrapolation of the current/past performances of individual oil fields and (ii) a stochastic model of the frequency of future oil field...

The Scaled Model of Error has gained considerable popularity during the past ten years as a device for computing probabilistic population forecasts of the cohort-component type. In this report we investigate how sensitive probabilistic population forecasts produced by means of the Scaled Model...

This paper builds two factor discrete time models in order to investigate the effect of sovereign risk on the nominal exchange rates in a Markov switching framework. The empirical section of the paper uses seven currencies from Chile, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Iceland, Japan, Korea, and...

While prior research has studied the motivations of individuals to consume content on social media platforms, limited work exists on how contributors are motivated to create content. We examine the role of peer influence in content production on YouTube, where content creators are competing for...

The paper deals with maritime risk, which we consider important, no doubt, for ship-owners acting in volatile markets. Traditionally, risk is measured by "standard deviation". Other risk measures like "excess kurtosis", "excess skewness", "long-term dependence" and the "catastrophe propensity"...