This paper compares the true, ex-ante forecasting performance of a micro-based model against both a standard macro … model and a random walk. In contrast to existing literature, which is focused on longer horizon forecasting, we examine … forecasting over horizons from one day to one month (the one-month horizon being where micro and macro analysis begin to overlap …

In this paper we face the fitting versus forecasting paradox with the objective of realizing an optimal Early Warning …

policy analysis and forecasting. NEMO has been used to identify the sources of business cycle fluctuations in Norway, to … historical shock and forecast-error-variance decompositions, and assessing its forecasting performance against a suite of …

This paper provides an assessment of the macroeconomic models regularly used for forecasting and policy analysis in the …-based analysis for monetary policy preparation and forecasting and provides recommendations and suggestions for improvement. Finally …

The post-crisis environment has posed important challenges to standard forecasting models. In this paper, we exploit …-VAR and Augmented-(B)VARDSGE methods) and assess their use for forecasting the Spanish economy. Our empirical findings suggest … with (B)VAR methods does not give rise to any relevant gain in terms of forecasting accuracy. …