This paper takes stock of forecasting and policy analysis system capacity development (FPAS CD), drawing extensively on the experience and lessons learned from developing FPAS capacity in the central banks. By sharing the insights gained during FPAS CD delivery and outlining the typical tools...

The U.S. Subprime Crisis and the subsequent Great Recession have highlighted a renewed interest in the proper design and implementation of Early Warning Systems (E.W.S.), in order to help deter the onset of subsequent extreme financial events, through the implementation of adequate crisis...

This paper builds two factor discrete time models in order to investigate the effect of sovereign risk on the nominal exchange rates in a Markov switching framework. The empirical section of the paper uses seven currencies from Chile, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Iceland, Japan, Korea, and...

The exchange rate is one of the most monitored economic variables reflecting the state of the economy in the long run, while affecting it significantly in the short run. However, prediction of the exchange rate is very complicated. In this contribution, for the purposes of predicting the...