I construct an estimable statistic that predicts whether a financial innovation will spread. The approach embeds the multi-host SIR model from epidemiology within a financial model of correlated securities trade; and takes advantage of the related predictive tools from mathematical epidemiology,...

"This monograph aims to collect recent theoretical insights and various empirical results for a rapidly developing area concerning the analysis of business and economic forecasts. Strictly following econometric textbooks one would be tempted to assume that forecasts are the outcome of a careful...