Why do analysts display overoptimism about the stocks they cover? According to the selection hypothesis, analysts pick their favorite stocks and are truly too optimistic. According to the conflict-of-interest hypothesis, analysts distort their view to maximize profits via commissions and...

Our ability to forecast degrades rapidly the further out we predict. Even if we do manage to accurately forecast an event, the magnitude and consequences of that event usually astonish us. On the rare occasion where we manage to accurately forecast the event, its magnitude and consequences, our...

Why do security analysts issue overly positive recommendations? We propose a novel approach to distinguish strategic motives (e.g., generating small-investor purchases and pleasing management) from nonstrategic motives (genuine overoptimism). We argue that nonstrategic distorters tend to issue...

Based on a unique high-frequency dataset for more than fifty commodities, currencies, equity indices, and fixed income instruments spanning more than two decades, we document strong similarities in realized volatilities patterns across assets and asset classes. Exploiting these similarities...