Showing 1 - 10 of 2,592
We outline a parsimonious empirical model to assess the relative usefulness of accounting and equity market based information to explain corporate credit spreads. The primary determinant of corporate credit spreads is the physical default probability. We compare existing accounting-based and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013114991
transaction costs of liquidity, credit risk, and other traditional bond pricing factors. Further, information asymmetry can help …Taking advantage of recently augmented corporate bond transaction data, we examine the pricing implications of informed … trading in corporate bonds and its ability to predict corporate defaults. We find that microstructure measures of information …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013093704
Using a structural model of default, we construct a measure of systemic default defined as the probability that many firms default at the same time. We account for correlations in defaults between firms through exposures to common shocks. The systemic default measure spikes during recession...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011810905
This paper investigates the market pricing of subprime mortgage risk on the basis of data for the ABX.HE family of … introduction into ABX index mechanics and a discussion of historical pricing patterns, we use regression analysis to establish the …, liquidity and risk appetite. The results imply that declining risk appetite and heightened concerns about market illiquidity …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605102
Using different econometric models, Diebold and Li (J Econom 130:337-364, 2006) addressed the practical problem of forecasting the yield curve by predicting the factors level, slope and curvature in the Nelson-Siegel framework. This paper has two main aims: on the one hand, to investigate the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011311742
Real-time macroeconomic data reflect the information available to market participants, whereas final data's containing revisions and released with a delays' overstate the information set available to them. We document that the in-sample and out-of-sample Treasury return predictability is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009664082
I provide evidence that risks in macroeconomic fundamentals contain valuable information about bond risk premia. I extract factors from a set of quantile-based risk measures estimated for US macroeconomic variables and document that they account for up to 31% of the variation in excess bond...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010478516
How much do term premiums matter for explaining the dynamics of the term structure of interest rates? A lot. We characterize the expected path of nominal and real short-rates as well as inflation using the universe of U.S. surveys of professional forecasters covering more than 500 survey-horizon...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011477349
This research investigates the macro factors for forecasting (1) bond risk premia and (2) term structure of government bond yields by using Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) based on empirical prior. Different from the traditional variable selection approach which advocates finding an...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013113732
I demonstrate that much of the time series variation in the credit spread on high yield bonds is attributable to … excess return investors earn from bearing default risk on high yield bonds. I find that the credit risk premium on high yield … bonds averages about 2.4 percent per year, accounts for 43 percent of high yield credit spreads, on average, and predicts …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013107927