Showing 1 - 10 of 1,857
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013270502
for future inflation for the cross section of New EU Member States. This paper provides stylized facts on monetary versus … non-monetary (economic and fiscal) determinants of inflation in these countries as well as formal econometric evidence on … predicting inflation at longer (3-year) horizons. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605061
for future inflation for the cross section of New EU Member States. This paper provides stylized facts on monetary versus … non-monetary (economic and fiscal) determinants of inflation in these countries as well as formal econometric evidence on … predicting inflation at longer (3-year) horizons. -- Inflation forecasting ; leading indicators ; monetary policy ; information …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003831802
Inflation is one of key policy variables in the European Union. Keeping inflation below 2 percent is the main … proclaimed goal of the European Central Bank. Monitoring inflation dynamics is even more important for the EU candidate countries … a hyperinflation period at the first phase of transition, inflation awareness seems to be even more relevant than in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013085304
for future inflation for the cross section of New EU Member States. This paper provides stylized facts on monetary versus … non-monetary (economic and fiscal) determinants of inflation in these countries as well as formal econometric evidence on … predicting inflation at longer (3-year) horizons …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013316406
What is the probability of high inflation; how high, when? These questions are important to all investors since even … characterizes this as The War On Savers. Higher inflation is possible, at 4% or more, with even worse effects. There are heated … debates about the probability and timing of high inflation, but our review of the extensive literature reveals no reliable way …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013099903
This research aimed to study the determinants of tourism demand in Tunisia from 1995 to 2019 with four independent variables: gross domestic product, consumer price index, the real exchange rate, and air transport passengers carried. The research employed the Unit root test, Co-integration test,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014310015
This paper introduces financial cycle indexes and uses them in an early warning exercise. The indexes are based on the traditional theory of business cycles. Juglar cycles are deduced from a number of financial indicators, categorized as leading and lagging indicators, and aggregated into...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013120870
Does the yield curve's ability to predict future output and recessions differ when interest rates are low, as in the current global environment? In this paper we build on recent econometric work by Shi, Phillips, and Hurn that detects changes in the causal impact of the yield curve and relate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012822664
We study the effects of stock market volatility on risk-taking and financial crises by constructing a cross-country database spanning up to 211 years and 60 countries. Prolonged periods of low volatility have strong in-sample and out-of-sample predictive power over the incidence of banking...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011578981