Censored count data are encountered in many applications, often due to a data collection mechanism that introduces censoring. A common example is questionnaires with question answers of the type 0,1,2,3. We consider the problem of predicting a censored output variable Y, given a set of complete...

Probability forecasts of binary events are often gathered from multiple models and averaged to provide inputs regarding uncertainty in important decision-making problems. Averages of well calibrated probabilities are underconfident, and methods have been proposed to make them more extreme. To...

A method to predict lightning by postprocessing numerical weather prediction (NWP) output is developed for the region of the European Eastern Alps. Cloud-to-ground-flashes - detected by the ground-based ALDIS network - are counted on the 18x18 km2 grid of the 51-member NWP ensemble of the...