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This working paper documents an econometric model for detecting turning points in the Danish economy in real time. The model is a mixedfrequency model using both monthly and quarterly data, which can be estimated on an unbalanced panel of data and be updated immediately as data comes through....
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Since the mid-1990s, under the wave of New Public Management reforms around the globe, Italian local governments (LGs) have received growing pressure from the legislature to implement performance measurement systems. With reference to municipalities, data show that there has been a growing...
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Factor models can cope with many variables without running into scarce degrees of freedom problems often faced in a … regression-based analysis. In this article we review recent work on dynamic factor models that have become popular in … macroeconomic policy analysis and forecasting. By means of an empirical application we demonstrate that these models turn out to be …
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surveying best linear unbiased prediction under various assumptions of the disturbance term. This includes various ARMA models … as well as spatial autoregressive models. The paper also surveys how these forecasts have been used in panal data … applications, running horse races between heterogeneous and homogeneous panel data models using out of sample forecasts. …
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This paper considers Bayesian regression with normal and doubleexponential priors as forecasting methods based on large panels of time series. We show that, empirically, these forecasts are highly correlated with principal component forecasts and that they perform equally well for a wide range...
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forecasters combine different models of exchange rate forecasting, while others rely solely on one model. We also find evidence …
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