Forecasts of inflation in the United States since the mid eighties have had smaller errors than in the past, but those … their own "Great Moderation." For those countries that did not attain macroeconomic stability, inflation forecasting … monetary regime does, makes possible the estimation of parsimonious inflation models for all available data (eight decades for …

empirical part consists of a cointegration analysis with an error correction mechanism from the mid 80s until 2005. We are able …

This paper assesses the performance of monetary indicators in predicting euro area HICP inflation out-of-sample over …. The results suggest that monetary indicators are still useful indicators for inflation in the euro area, but that a … inflation. …

indicators in predicting euro area HICP inflation out-of-sample over the period first quarter 1999 till third quarter 2006 … ability of money-based forecasts relative to a simple random walk benchmark model was high at medium-term forecasting horizons …

This document proposes a general macroeconomic framework to analyze the behavior of inflation. This approach has two … price level. When all shocks have a permanent impact, the regime determines the inflation rate, as in inflation targeting … cause the rate of inflation or the price level. With this, a new perspective on four different historical cases emerges. One …