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Heterogeneity in individual expectations, sentiment, and constant-gain learning

Cole, Stephen J.; Milani, Fabio - 2020

The adaptive learning approach has been fruitfully employed to model the formation of aggregate expectations at the … macroeconomic level, as an alternative to rational expectations. This paper uses adaptive learning to understand, instead, the … sentiment, defined as the degrees of excess optimism and pessimism that cannot be justified by the near-rational learning model …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012226634

Perceived uncertainty shocks, excess optimism-pessimism, and learning in the business cycle

Chatterjee, Pratiti; Milani, Fabio - 2020

What are the effects of beliefs, sentiment, and uncertainty, over the business cycle? To answer this question, we develop a behavioral New Keynesian macroeconomic model, in which we relax the assumption of rational expectations. Agents are, instead, boundedly rational: they have a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012294890

Macroeconomics, nonlinearities, and the business cycle

Reif, Magnus - 2019

Im Zentrum dieser Dissertation steht das Beschreiben und Erklären von Konjunkturdynamiken. Motiviert durch den außerordentlich starken wirtschaftlichen Einbruch in 2008/2009 betont die Arbeit dabei die Wichtigkeit der Nutzung von nichtlinearen Modellansätzen. Die Dissertation kann als Beitrag...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012154125

Estimation methods for non-homogeneous regression models : minimum continuous ranked probability score vs. maximum likelihood

Gebetsberger, Manuel; Messner, Jakob W.; Mayr, Georg. J.; … - 2017

Non-homogeneous regression models are widely used to statistically post-process numerical ensemble weather prediction models. Such regression models are capable of forecasting full probability distributions and correct for ensemble errors in the mean and variance. To estimate the corresponding...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011762435

Semi-structural models for inflation forecasting

Kichian, Maral; Rumler, Fabio; Corrigan, Paul - 2010

We propose alternative single-equation semi-structural models for forecasting inflation in Canada, whereby structural New Keynesian models are combined with time-series features in the data. Several marginal cost measures are used, including one that in addition to unit labour cost also...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010280057

The FRBNY Staff Underlying Inflation Gauge : UIG

Amstad, Marlene; Potter, Simon M.; Rich, Robert W. - 2014

Monetary policymakers and long-term investors would benefit greatly from a measure of underlying inflation that uses all relevant information, is available in real time, and forecasts inflation better than traditional underlying inflation measures such as core inflation measures. This paper...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010404156

Developing an underlying inflation gauge for China

Amstad, Marlene; Huan, Ye; Ma, Guonan - 2014

The headline consumer price index (CPI) is often considered too noisy, narrowly defined, and/or slowly available for policymaking. On the other hand, traditional core inflation measures may reduce volatility but do not address other issues and may even exclude important information. This paper...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010412468

Semi-structural models for inflation forecasting

Kichian, Maral; Rumler, Fabio; Corrigan, Paul - 2010

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008771584

A Collection on the Versatility and Predictive Power of Survey Expectations Data

Guzman, Giselle - 2014

This collection of papers analyzes the versatility and predictive power of survey expectations data in asset pricing and macroeconomic forecasting. The first paper, Using Sentiment Surveys to Predict GDP Growth and Stock Returns sheds new light on the question of whether or not sentiment...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013055949

Forecasting Euro Area Inflation Using Dynamic Factor Measures of Underlying Inflation

Camba-Mendez, Gonzalo; Kapetanios, George - 2021

Standard measures of prices are often contaminated by transitory shocks. This has prompted economists to suggest the use of measures of underlying inflation to formulate monetary policy and assist in forecasting observed inflation. Recent work has concentrated on modelling large datasets using...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013319014

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