monetary policy. It covers several major macro-economic quantities, including unemployment rate, GDP, and weekly payrolls in … natural rate of unemployment and GDP growth comes out of the model naturally. An optimization framework is proposed to … first-order analytic solution is derived. We find that FED's interest rate policy has leaned heavily on the unemployment …

We propose a unique method of nowcasting and forecasting GDP growth based on a forward-looking measure of unemployment …

a multivariate trend-cycle decomposition. Although the unemployment rate clearly contains important cyclical information … about the output gap. Instead, we show that the alternative U-2 unemployment rate (job losers as a percentage of the labor …

Unemployment is notoriously difficult to predict. In previous studies, once country fixed effects are added to panel … estimates, few variables predict changes in unemployment rates. Using panel data for 29 European countries - Austria; Belgium … predict changes in the unemployment rate 12 months in advance based on individuals' fears of unemployment, their perceptions …

Unemployment is notoriously difficult to predict. In previous studies, once country and year fixed effects are added to … panel estimates, few variables predict changes in unemployment rates. Using panel data for 29 European countries collected … just over 10000 observations, we predict changes in the unemployment rate 12 months ahead. We do so using individuals …

Using U.S. real-time data, we show that changes in the unemployment rate unexplained by Okun's Law have significant … a change in potential GDP, the equilibrium unemployment rate, or the use of labor's intensive margin. …