We rely on the theoretical prediction that financial misreporting peaks before economic busts to examine whether aggregate ex ante measures of the likelihood of financial misreporting improve the predictability of U.S. recessions. We consider six measures of misreporting and show that the...

This study examines whether and why the stock market assigns an incremental premium to the act of beating analyst earnings forecasts when the economy is unforecastable. Our study uses a novel measure of macroeconomic (macro) uncertainty from Jurado et al. (2015) that captures periods during...