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Forecasting Euro area real GDP: optimal pooling of information

Hülsewig, Oliver; Mayr, Johannes; Wollmershäuser, Timo - 2008

This paper proposes a new method of forecasting euro area quarterly real GDP that uses area-wide indicators, which are derived by optimally pooling the information contained in national indicator series. Following the ideas of predictive modeling, we construct the area-wide indicators by...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010264416

Penalized adaptive method in forecasting with large information set and structure change

Li, Xinjue; Zbonakova, Lenka; Härdle, Wolfgang - 2017

In the present paper we propose a new method, the Penalized Adaptive Method (PAM), for a data driven detection of structure changes in sparse linear models. The method is able to allocate the longest homogeneous intervals over the data sample and simultaneously choose the most proper variables...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011714497

Chapter 9 Approximate Nonlinear Forecasting Methods

White, Halbert - 2006

We review key aspects of forecasting using nonlinear models. Because economic models are typically misspecified, the resulting forecasts provide only an approximation to the best possible forecast. Although it is in principle possible to obtain superior approximations to the optimal forecast...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014023697

Disagreement in Economic Forecasts and Equity Returns : Risk or Mispricing?

Bali, Turan G. - 2020

We quantify disagreement about the economy with ex-ante measures of divergence of opinion among economic forecasters and investigate if economic disagreement has a significant impact on the cross-sectional pricing of individual stocks. We find a significant disagreement premium of 7.2% per...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012856755

Forecasting Euro area real GDP : optimal pooling of information

Hülsewig, Oliver (contributor); Mayr, Johannes (contributor) - 2008

information approach outperforms alternative forecasting methods in terms of forecast accuracy. -- Forecasting ; aggregation …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003749431

Forecasting value-at-risk under temporal and portfolio aggregation

Kole, Erik; Markwat, Thijs; Opschoor, Anne; Dijk, Dick van - 2015

We examine the impact of temporal and portfolio aggregation on the quality of Value-at-Risk (VaR) forecasts over a … based on asset class, or into a single portfolio. We compare the impact of aggregation to that of choosing a model for the … that the degree of temporal aggregation is most important. Daily returns form the best basis for VaR forecasts. Modelling …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011431503