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Density forecast evaluation and the effect of risk-neutral central moments on the currency risk premium: Test based on EUR/HUF option-implied densities
Csávás, Csaba - 2008
In this paper we estimate risk-neutral probability density functions from EUR/HUF currency options using the Malz (1997) method. First, we compare different option-based indicators. We present so-called 'shortcut' indicators, i.e. indicators that can be calculated directly, without the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010322462
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Aggregate-Level Migration Studies as a Tool for Forecasting Future Migration Streams
Fertig, Michael; Schmidt, Christoph M. - 2000
Assessing the migration potential and predicting future migration streams are among the most relevant, yet least well understood topics of migration research. The usual approach taken to address aggregate-level prediction problems is to fit ad hoc specifications to historical data, and to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010262391
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Combination of multivariate volatility forecasts
Amendola, Alessandra; Storti, Giuseppe - 2009
the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM). It is shown how the procedure can be generalized to deal with large dimensional … systems by means of a two-step strategy. The finite sample properties of the GMM estimator of the combination weights are …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010263760
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Estimating and forecasting with a dynamic spatial panel data model
Baltagi, Badi H.; Fingleton, Bernard; Pirotte, Alain - 2011
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009546961
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Consumer confidence or the business cycle : what matters more for European expected returns?
Møller, Stig Vinther; Nørholm, Henrik; Rangvid, Jesper - In: Journal of empirical finance 28 (2014), pp. 230-248
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011285064
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Semi-structural forecasting of UK inflation based on the hybrid New Keynesian Phillips curve
Posch, Johanna; Rumler, Fabio - In: Journal of forecasting 34 (2015) 2, pp. 145-162
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011305282
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Aggregate-level migration studies as a tool for forecasting future migration streams
Fertig, Michael; Schmidt, Christoph M. - 2000
Assessing the migration potential and predicting future migration streams are among the most relevant, yet least well understood topics of migration research. The usual approach taken to address aggregate-level prediction problems is to fit ad hoc specifications to historical data, and to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011336860
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A non-linear dynamic model of the variance risk premium
Eraker, Bjørn; Wang, Jiakou - In: Journal of econometrics 187 (2015) 2, pp. 547-556
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011499758
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A re-examination of the predictability of stock returns and cash flows via the decomposition of VIX
Yun, Jaeho - In: Economics letters 186 (2020), pp. 1-5
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012500329
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Permanent shocks and forecasting with moving averages
Lee, Yoonsuk; Brorsen, B. Wade - In: Applied economics 49 (2017) 12, pp. 1213-1225
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011811267