results suggest that euro-area inflation forecasts have reacted less to unemployment forecasts after the start of the … financial crisis but another cost measure (energy inflation) remains significant. This finding is consistent with a flatter … better anchoring of inflation expectations and increases in structural unemployment do not seem to find support in the survey …

Policymakers and researchers see inflation characterized by cyclical fluctuations driven by changes in resource … utilization and temporary shocks, around a trend influenced by inflation expectations. We study the in-sample inflation dynamics … and forecast inflation out-of-sample by analyzing a New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) in the frequency domain. In …

We show that the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) outperforms standard benchmarks in forecasting U.S. inflation once … frequency-domain information is taken into account. We do so by decomposing the time series (of inflation and its predictors …) into several frequency bands and forecasting separately each frequency component of inflation. The largest statistically …

This paper revisits the accuracy of inflation forecasting using activity and expectations variables. We apply Bayesian … values of inflation, a host of real activity data, term structure data, nominal data and surveys. In this model average we … affect any inflation forecast model. The different versions of our framework are used to model U.S. PCE deflator and GDP …

inflation, we examine models of inflation that do and do not use the output gap. The Phillips curve, which relates inflation to … real activity, is regarded as the maintained theory of inflation. Models of inflation without the output gap include the … paper examines ten different models of inflation and estimates sixty-seven different specifications, some of which …

The ability of the New Keynesian Phillips curve to explain US inflation dynamics when official central bank forecasts … (Greenbook forecasts) are used as a proxy for inflation expectations is examined. The New Keynesian Phillips curve is estimated … using actual data on future inflation as conventionally employed in empirical work under the assumption of rational …

for Swedish inflation over the period 1980-2014. Three measures of inflation are considered –– headline inflation …, underlying inflation, GDP deflator inflation, in addition to different activity variables, various econometric specifications and … instability, in general, the Phillips curve models improve inflation forecasts against the random walk benchmark for both headline …

This article shows how the recovery of inflation in 2009-10 occurred precisely at the only time (since 1985) the models … would predict disinflation, i.e., inflation went up when the models said it should go down …

Managing inflation is vital for a stable economy, but forecasting remains challenging. ML methods, like neural networks …, have shown promise in forecasting inflation and other macroeconomic variables. In this paper, I propose DPCNet, a deep … multi-task learning model, to jointly forecast inflation and unemployment. DPCNet incorporates economic structure and memory …