This paper develops a set of leading indicators of industrial production growth and consumer price inflation for the period 2001-2010. The choice of indicators is based on pseudo out-of-sample forecasting exercise implemented by Stock and Watson (2003), amongst others. We find that asset prices...

In this paper, we study the evolution of inflation expectations for two key emerging economies, Brazil and Turkey, using a reduced form model in a state-space framework, where the level of inflation is modeled explicitly. We match the survey-based inflation expectations and inflation targets set...

In this paper, we develop a Twitter-based measure of public sentiment that is useful for measuring the economic policy uncertainty that impacts individual decisions for Turkey. We extract a Twitter-based Economic Policy Uncertainty (TEPU) Index based on a selected set of Twitter user accounts...

In this paper, we propose a method for jointly estimating indexes of economic and financial conditions by exploiting the intertemporal link between their cyclical behavior. This method combines a dynamic factor model for the joint modeling of economic and financial variables with mixed...

This paper develops a set of leading indicators of industrial production growth and consumer price inflation for the period 2001-2010. The choice of indicators is based on pseudo out-of-sample forecasting exercise implemented by Stock and Watson (2003), amongst others. We find that asset prices...