Hurricanes are among the costliest natural disasters in the world, with a significant portion of their impact linked to the accuracy of their forecasts. In this paper, we estimate the economic impacts of the official hurricane forecasts in the US and develop a new approach for measuring the...

This article proposes a way of introducing some organization and tractability in climate science, generating more widely credible evaluations of climate science, and imposing some discipline on the processing and interpretation of climate information. I propose a two-part policy instrument...

This paper studies the coexistence of two competing mechanisms in the same market, where one follows the posted-offer rule and the other one incorporates a double-auction mechanism. We explore this coexistence within a sports betting example in which bettors are free to choose between a bookie...

Data on individual trades in prediction markets relating to the 2008 and 2012 US Presidential elections reveal that traders vary enormously in their behavior. This contrasts with the standard prediction-market models, which assume relatively homogeneous participants who differ only in their...